Longevity 21 Parallel Sessions
The following presentations have been accepted for the Longevity 21 Conference
Tuesday 8th September 2026
Parallel Session I (Morning)
1A -Covid-19 Mortality 1
Room: Aula Tarantelli – (1st floor)
- On the Nature and Handling of COVID-19 in ARIMA Mortality Forecasts
Stephen Richards - Robust Dynamic Mortality Modelling under Structural Shocks
Karen Barrera - Modelling Post-pandemic Mortality; Scenario-based Projections across Countries
Ayse Arik (Chair)
1B -Mortality Modelling 1
Room: Aula 8B
- A Time-Varying Mortality Model with Non-Gaussian Distribution
I-Chien Liu - A Fit-for-purpose Model Selection Framework for Stochastic Mortaliity Modelling
Philipp Schulz (Chair)
1C -Cause of Death Modelling
Room: Aula 8A
- Investigating Determinants of Cause-specific Mortality in Europe using Spatial Economic Models
Eman Elmeaddawy - Decomposing General Differences in Cancer Mortality: Incidence, Survival and County-Level Variation in Taiwan
Ysonia (Pin-Huan) Huang - A General Multinomial Model for Causes of Death
Julian Tomas (Chair)
1D - Investment Strategies
Room: Aula 6C
- State-Contingent Volatility Transmission between Equity Markets and Target-Date Funds: Implications for Risk-Minimizing Glide Paths
Huiyuan Wang - Robust Portfolio Choice under Preference Uncertainty: A Best-of-many approach
Anne Balter (Chair)
1E - Pensions
Room: Aula 6A
- Proposed Model of Longevity Risk Management in Polish Pension System
Marek Szozepanski - Mandatory Pension Saving and Homeownership
Bjarne Astrup Jensen - NDC Pension Systems under Socioeconomic Longevity Inequality: Financial Sustainability, Actuarial Fairness and Implicit Redistribution
Massimiliano Menzietti (Chair)
Tuesday 8th September 2026
Parallel Session II (Afternoon)
2A - Sub Group Modelling
Room: Aula Tarantelli (1st floor)
- Explaining the Drift in Socio-economic Classifications.
Kai Kaufhold - Postcode-Level Longevity Risk Heterogeneity in the UK: Implications for Pension Buyouts and Annuity Pricing
Luna Orlovsky - Modelling Healthy Life Expectancy at Neighbourhood Level
Andrew Cairns (Chair)
2B - Retirement Issues 1
Room: Aula 8B
- Retirement Protection Gaps under Longevity Risk: Evidence from a Multi-Stakeholder Survey in Asia
Fu Yu - Subjective Survival Beliefs and the Wealth Gradient in Retirement (Mis)planning
Nan Zhu - Examining the Justification Bias in the Effect of Health on Early Retirement Decisions
Malene Kallestrup-Lamb (Chair)
2C - Covid-19 Mortality 2
Room: Aula 8A
- Mortality Shocks in Insured Populations during COVID-19 and Implications for Annuity Life Tables
Hsin-Chung Wang - Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cohort life Expectancy
Silvia Rizzi (Chair)
2D - Health and Mortality 1
Room: Aula 6C
- Innovation-Driven Longevity and the Redesign of Health Insurance Contracts
Cinzia Di Palo - Years of Life Lived with Multiple Chronic Diseases in Denmark
Marie-Pier Bergeron-Bourcher (Chair)
2E - Mortality Modelling 2
Room: Aula 6A
- Dynamic Bayesian Mortality Surface Modelling with Local Age-Time Dependence
Mariane Alves - Aging by Design: Deriving Mortality Models from Reliability Theory
Kenneth Zhou (Chair)
Wednesday 9th September 2026
Parallel Session III (Morning)
3A - Retirement Issues 2
Room: Aula Tarantelli – (1st floor)
- An Ageing Britain: Health Gains and Retirement Pains (60 minutes)
Mei Sum Chan and Jack Carmichael (Chair)
3B - Mortality Forecasting
Room: Aula 8B
- CMI Mortality Projections Model
Stephen Bale - Time-Varying Temporal Reconciliation for Multi-Frequency Mortality Forecasting
Runze Li - Spatial Smoothing and Small-Sample Bias in Mortality Forecasting
Jack Yue (Chair)
3C - Climate and Mortality Modelling 1
Room: Aula 8A
- Climate–Driven Mortality Forecasting Using Deep Learning
Kenrick So - Modelling Climate-Sensitive Mortality via Explainable Deep Learning
Raffaele Petrella (Chair)
3D - Health and Mortality 2
Room: Aula 6C
- Monitoring the Interplay between Longevity Risk and Health Dynamics: The Case of a Life Care Reverse Mortgage Portfolio
Giulia Magni - Who Dies Young? Concentration and Compositional Shift in Premature Mortality Risk
Alexander O.K. Marin - Towards Fairer Retirement Outcomes: Health-Related Mortality Modelling
Andrés Villegas (Chair)
3E - Mortality Modelling 3
Room: Aula 6A
- Gradient Boosted Multi-population Mortality Modelling with High-frequency Data
Ziting Miao - Population-Anchored Deep Learning for Sparse Annuity Mortality Modeling
Hong-Chih Huang - The Gender Mortality Gap: Unlocking Future Patterns via Neural Network Models
Giovanna Apicella (Chair)
Wednesday 9th September 2026
Parallel Session IV (Afternoon)
4A - Longevity Risk Sharing
Room: Aula Tarantelli – (1st floor)
- Building a Tradable Longevity Asset Class: From Insurance Liability to Institutional Investment Product
Ziv Cohen - Optimal Payouts for Stable and Equitable Longevity Risk-Sharing Arrangements
Andres Villegas - A One-Period Systemic Risk Factor Model with Longevity Risk
Richard MacMinn (Chair)
4B - Climate and Mortality Modelling 2
Room: Aula 8B
- Multi-Population Mortality Modeling with Temperature Effects: A Hermite-DLNM Approach
Jiacheng Min - Latent Climate Risk: Integrating Textual Signals into Longevity Modeling and Pricing
Hua Chen (Chair)
4C - Annuities
Room: Aula 8A
- VIX-Triggered Target Volatility and VM-21 Reserve Efficiency for Variable Annuity Guarantees
Chi-Fang Chao - Bequest Motives and Demand for Deferred Annuities
Xiaobai Zhu - Product Design, Capital Requirements, and Risk Management in Fixed Indexed Annuities
Jennifer Wang (Chair)
4D - Long Term Care
Room: Aula 6C
- Prudential Liquidity Rules beyond Banking: Evidence from Refundable Deposit Funding for Aged Care Providers
Lingfeng Lyu - A Risk-Adjusted Analysis of LTC Insurance
Alba Roviello - Measuring the Effectiveness of Long-Term Care Integration within Pension Systems
Alberto Piscitelli (Chair)
4E - Mortality Modelling 4
Room: Aula 6A
- Quantum-Compatible Vitagion Mortality Modelling: A Forward-Looking Extension of the Lee-Carter Model
Rocco Romano - Socio-economic-based Mortality and Actuarial Fairness: Pricing and Solvency Implications for Life Insurance Portfolios
Mario Marino - The Period-Cohort Mortality Gap in Annuity Valuation
Ivan Gallo (Chair)