Portrait of Dr David Smith

Dr David Smith

Senior Lecturer in Actuarial Science, Course Director Undergraduate

Bayes Business School , Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance

Contact

About

Overview

David graduated with a BSc (Hons) in Actuarial Science at City University in 1996.  He then worked as a research assistant at City for a year building stochastic pension asset models.  He then worked in the Life Assurance industry for four years before returning to City University in 2001 as lecturer.  Whilst at City, he completed his PhD which examined new ways of projecting mortality rates. He is currently one of the course directors for the BSc Actuarial Science, BSc Finance with Actuarial Science, and BSc Data Analytics and Actuarial Science degrees, as well as being the course director for the Foundation Year for Actuarial Science and Accounting and Finance.

His main research areas are demographics and in particular projecting life expectancy.  He has also studied the effects of living in Almshouses can have on neutralising the impact of economic deprivation on mortality rates.  He has recently been looking at applying behavioural science to increase savings and how machine learning can be used in health insurance

Qualifications

  • BSc Actuarial Science

Memberships of professional organisations

  • Completed Exams, Institute of Actuaries, September 1997 - present

Expertise

Primary topics

  • Actuarial Science
  • Demography

Additional topics

  • Health Insurance
  • Non-life Insurance

Industries

  • health care
  • insurance

Research

Over the last three years we have mainly published papers on developing new methodologies of predicting changes in population sizes and in addition looking at developing products to tap into the housing wealth of the UK population to help fund long term care needs.

Research topics

Projection of Population Sizes

We are currently investigating projecting populations by looking at changes in survival rates and expectation of life rather than the more conventional changes in mortality rates. We find that the trends in survivorship are often more stable than mortality rates and are also more understandable for the general population, including those who work in Government policy areas.

Funding long-term care and pensions

We have been investigating the role of personal savings and in particular housing wealth may have in terms of funding long-term care needs in the UK and the role of Government in facilitating these potential products

Determining Medical Care Required by Disease Diagnosis

By analysing the medical needs of a population, subdivided by the diseases they are diagnosed in having, predictions about the cost of future care can be determined. On an individual basis this research can be used to price certain health products and on a population basis, when combined with the projection of population sizes, can be used to plan the costs of State health care.

The impact of retirement villages on mortality rates

We have recently started investigating the potential impact on mortality rates of living in retirement villages. The argument that these villages can provide a more sociable environment as well as medical facilities should reduce the mortality rates of the population residing there.

Publications

Chapter

  1. In Lombard, J.R., Stern, E. and Clarke, G. (Eds.), (2016). Applied Spatial Modelling and Planning. In Routledge.

Conference papers and proceedings (4)

  1. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2012). Gender convergence in life expectancy and the postponement of death. Longevity Risk: Eighth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference 7-8 September, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
  2. Smith, D. and Mayhew, L. (2008). Using queuing theory to analyse the Government's four-hour completion time target in A and E departments. Joint IACA/PBSS/IAAHS Colloquium 4-7 May, Boston, USA.
  3. Smith, D. and Committee, A.P.P. (2007). Potential Effects of Bird 'Flu on Health Insurance Companies. Health Care Manchester.
  4. Smith, D.A. and Mayhew, L. (2007). The effects of the Government's 4-hour target on A&E waiting times. Actuarial Teachers Conference Leeds.

Journal articles (11)

  1. Mayhew, L., Rickayzen, B. and Smith, D. (2021). Flexible and Affordable Methods of Paying for Long-Term Care Insurance. North American Actuarial Journal, 25(sup1), pp. S196-S214. doi:10.1080/10920277.2019.1651657

    [publisher’s website]

  2. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2021). An Investigation into Inequalities in Adult Lifespan. North American Actuarial Journal, 25(sup1), pp. S545-S565. doi:10.1080/10920277.2019.1671874

    [publisher’s website]

  3. Mayhew, L., Smith, D. and Wright, I. (2018). The effect of longevity drift and investment volatility on income sufficiency in retirement. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 78, pp. 201-211. doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.09.013

    [publisher’s website]

  4. Mayhew, L., Smith, D. and O’Leary, D. (2017). Paying for Care Costs in Later Life Using the Value in People’s Homes. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 42(1), pp. 129-151. doi:10.1057/gpp.2015.34

    [publisher’s website]

  5. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2015). On the decomposition of life expectancy and limits to life. Population Studies, 69(1), pp. 73-89. doi:10.1080/00324728.2014.972433

    [publisher’s website]

  6. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2014). Personal Care Savings Bonds: A New Way of Saving Towards Social Care in Later Life. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 39(4), pp. 668-692. doi:10.1057/gpp.2014.30

    [publisher’s website]

  7. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2014). Gender Convergence in Human Survival and the Postponement of Death. North American Actuarial Journal, 18(1), pp. 194-216. doi:10.1080/10920277.2013.863140

    [publisher’s website]

  8. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2013). A new method of projecting populations based on trends in life expectancy and survival. Population Studies, 67(2), pp. 157-170. doi:10.1080/00324728.2012.740500

    [publisher’s website]

  9. Smith, D.A., Butt, Z., Mayhew, L.D., Rickayzen, B.D., Bhullar, H. and Dattani, H. (2012). A METHOD OF PROJECTING FUTURE CO-MORBIDITY PREVALENCE AND HEALTH SERVICE DEMAND IN THE UNITED KINGDOM POPULATION USING THE HEALTH IMPROVEMENT NETWORK (THIN). VALUE IN HEALTH, 15(4), pp. A163-A163. doi:10.1016/j.jval.2012.03.883
  10. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2011). Human Survival at Older Ages and the Implications for Longevity Bond Pricing. North American Actuarial Journal, 15(2), pp. 248-265. doi:10.1080/10920277.2011.10597620

    [publisher’s website]

  11. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2008). Using queuing theory to analyse the Government's 4-h completion time target in Accident and Emergency departments. Health Care Management Science, 11(1), pp. 11-21. doi:10.1007/s10729-007-9033-8

    [publisher’s website]

Reports (11)

  1. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2020). The 100-year family Longer lives, fewer children. London: International Longevity Centre UK.
  2. Rickayzen, B., Mayhew, L. and Smith, D.A. (2017). Does living in a retirement village extend life expectancy? The case of Whiteley Village..
  3. Rickayzen, B.D., Smith, D. and Mayhew, L. (2017). Flexible and affordable methods of paying for long term care insurance. International Longevity Centre – UK ILC-UK/Cass Business School.
  4. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2016). An investigation into inequalities in adult lifespan. UK: International Longevity Centre- UK.
  5. Mayhew, L., Smith, D. and Wright, I.D. (2015). Pension pots and how to survive them. London: International Longevity Centre ILC-UK.
  6. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2015). A jam-jar model of life expectancy and limits to life. International Longevity Centre - UK ILC-UK.
  7. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2014). The UK Equity Bank - Towards income security in old age. The International Longevity Centre - UK ILC-UK.
  8. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2013). Personal Care Savings Bonds - a new way of saving toward social care in later life. The International Longevity Centre - UK ILC-UK.
  9. Mayhew, L. and Smith, D. (2012). Gender Convergence in Life Expectancy and the Postponement of Death. Cass Business School, City University London.
  10. Smith, D. and Mayhew, L. (2009). Whither human survival and longevity or the shape of things to come. London: Faculty of Actuarial Science & Insurance, City University London.
  11. Haberman, S. and Smith, D. (1997). Stochastic investment modelling and pension funding: a simulation based analysis. London, UK: Faculty of Actuarial Science & Insurance, City University London.

Working papers (2)

Education

Course Directorship

- 2001 - present, BSc Actuarial Science, Admissions Tutor
- 2006 - present, BSc Actuarial Science, Assistant Director

Professional activities

Events/conferences (12)

  1. British Society for Population Studies 2016 Conference. (Conference) Winchester, UK (2016).
    Paper: Evaluating the effect on mortality of living in a UK retirement village
    Author: Mayhew, L
    Co-authors: Rickayzen, B; Smith, D.
  2. 3rd European Actuarial Journal Conference. (Conference) Lyon, France (2016).
    Paper: Paying for long term care insurance: The pros and cons of different payment methods
    Author: Mayhew, L
    Co-authors: Rickayzen, B; Smith, D.
  3. 51st Actuarial Research Conference. (Conference) Minnesota, USA (2016).
    Paper: Paying for long term care insurance: The pros and cons of different payment methods
    Author: Mayhew, L.
    Co-authors: Rickayzen, B; Smith, D.
  4. R in insurance 2016. (Conference) London, United Kingdom (2016).
    Paper: Investigating the correlation between month of birth and diagnosis of specific diseases
    Author: Rickayzen, B
    Co-authors: Smith, D; Lopes L.
  5. British Society of Population Studies. (Conference) Winchester, United Kingdom (2014).
    Paper: Poster Presentation - The impact of relative poverty on mortality rates in the United Kingdom
    Author: Smith D. A
    Co-authors: Mayhew L.D., Rickayzen B.D., Butt Z., Waples S.
  6. 49th Actuarial Research Conference. (Conference) Santa Barbara, USA (2014).
    Paper: On the Decomposition of Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy and Limits to Life.
    Author: Smith D.A.
    Co-authors: Mayhew, L.D.
  7. British Society of Poulation Studies. (Conference) Swansea, Wales (2013).
    Paper: On the decomposition of life expectancy and limits to life
    Author: Mayhew L
    Co-authors: Smith, D A
  8. 48th Actuarial Research Conference. (Conference) Philadelphia, US (2013).
    Paper: Personal Care Savings Bonds - A New Way of Saving Towards Social Care in Later Life
    Author: Smith D A
    Co-authors: Mayhew, Les
  9. IPSOR International Health Conference. (Conference) Washington, USA (2012).
    Paper: Poster Presentation - A new method of projecting population mortality
    Author: Smith D A
    Co-authors: Mayhew, Rickayzen, Butt
  10. Joint IACA/PBSS/IAAHS Colloquium. (Conference) Boston, USA (2008). Invited speaker.
    Paper: Using queuing theory to analyse the Government’s four-hour completion time target in A and E departments
    Author: Smith D A
    Co-authors: Les Mayhew
  11. Health Care. (Conference) Manchester (2007). Invited speaker.
    Paper: Potential Effects of Bird 'Flu on Health Insurance Companies
    Author: Smith D
    Co-authors: Actuarial Profession's Pandemic Committee
  12. Actuarial Teachers Conference. (Conference) Leeds (2007). Invited speaker.
    Paper: The effects of the Government's 4-hour target on A&E waiting times
    Author: Smith D A
    Co-authors: Mayhew, Les

Media appearances (16)

  1. PRESS RELEASE - Industry experts propose ÒEquity. (2014) Sw1a.net (website).
  2. Govt should set up 'equity release scheme' for poorer retirees. (2014) Professional Adviser.
  3. Conference Showcases UCSB's Actuarial Program. (2014) Noozhawk.com (website).
  4. Novel solution to the pensions problem. (2014) Money Week (magazine).
  5. KRS'Mirfin calls for 'no negative equity guarantee'. (2014) Financial Adviser.
  6. Equity release rates could be cut if government guaranteed no negative equity. (2014) Mortgage Finance Gazette.
  7. Equity Bank could help low income pensioners release housing wealth. (2014) Mortgage Finance Gazette.
  8. Industry experts propose Equity Bank. (2014) Mortgage Introducer.
  9. Reports call for launch of social care. (2013) local gov.co.uk (website).
  10. (2013) Local Government Exclusive.co.uk (website).
  11. Press Release: Pay for care with social bonds. (2013) SW1a.net (website).
  12. premium bonds plan could help solve cars crisis, peers to be told. (2013) The Telegraph.co.uk (website).
  13. (2013) Mature Times.co.uk (website).
  14. Basildon hospital waiting times hit new low. (2008) www.thurrockgazette.co.uk (website).
  15. (2007) Times (newspaper).
  16. Patients admitted to hospital simply to hit targets. (2007) Times (newspaper).