Portrait of Dr Nicole Lux

Dr Nicole Lux

Senior Research Fellow

Bayes Business School , Finance

Contact

About

Overview

Dr Nicole Lux is a Senior Research Fellow and Project Director at the Faculty of Finance at Bayes Business School (formerly Cass). She was previously a Vice President at Deutsche Bank where she worked in loan restructuring and workout. Nicole started her career at MSCI constructing real estate indices and portfolio analysis. From there she joined Moody’s Investor Service as a rating analyst, where she developed new rating methodologies for CMBS, real estate and fixed income funds. Afterwards she worked in a number of investment and commercial banks such as Citigroup and Danske Bank in real estate loan origination. She was responsible for deal origination and execution for commercial mortgage loans of £20 – 500m across Europe.

In 2016 Nicole took over the De Montfort Commercial Real Estate Lending project to increase transparency in commercial mortgage markets for regulators and investors. The project continues under Bayes Business School (formerly Cass) under the Commercial Real Estate Lending Report.

Nicole has also published a practitioner’s book on modelling real estate risk and other research papers.

She is regular conference speaker at CREFC, IPF, and MSCI and provides professional executive training through RICS, Euromoney, CREFC, Property Overview Ltd.

Her key research interests are:

• Real estate debt finance

• Credit rating

• Structured finance

• Basel regulation

• Risk pricing

Qualifications

  • PhD, University of Reading, United Kingdom, October 1998 - April 2002
  • IMC, CFA Institute, United Kingdom, 2002

Employment

  • External Examiner, Oxford University, United Kingdom, October 2014 - present
  • Vice President, Deutsche Bank, United Kingdom, January 2010 - October 2015
  • Associate Director, Danske Bank, United Kingdom, January 2008 - October 2009
  • Associate, Citigroup, United Kingdom, March 2007 - December 2008
  • Analyst, Moody's Investor Service, United Kingdom, January 2004 - March 2007
  • Analyst, MSCI, United Kingdom, October 2000 - December 2003

Expertise

Primary topics

  • Financial Risk & Risk Management
  • Fixed-Income Investments
  • Real Estate Economics
  • Real Estate Finance
  • Risk Modelling

Additional topics

  • Asset Pricing
  • Investment Management
  • Investment Theory
  • Portfolio Choice

Industries

  • banking
  • financial services
  • real estate

Geographic Areas

  • Europe

Publications

Book

  1. Lux, N. (2012). Assessing Real Estate Risk Applied Models, Concepts, Methods. ISBN 9781781370780.

Journal articles (8)

  1. Andrew, M., Culley, J., Lux, N. and Skouralis, A. (2025). Climate Risk, insurance retreat and mortgage exposure: implications for UK households and housing finance. Housing Finance International, Summer 2025, pp. 27-34

    [publisher’s website]

  2. Kladakis, G., Lux, N. and Skouralis, A. (2025). Exploring the non-linear dynamics between Commercial Real Estate and systemic risk. Journal of Empirical Finance, 82, pp. 101607-101607. doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101607

    [publisher’s website]

  3. Skouralis, A., Lux, N. and Andrew, M. (2024). Does flood risk affect property prices? Evidence from a property-level flood score. Journal of Housing Economics, 66, pp. 102027-102027. doi:10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102027

    [publisher’s website]

  4. Tsolacos, S. and Lux, N. (2022). Modelling credit spreads on commercial mortgage loans. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 15(3), pp. 332-350. doi:10.1108/jerer-04-2021-0022

    [publisher’s website]

  5. Lux, N. and Tsolacos, S. (2021). Loan Characteristics as Predictors of Default in Commercial Mortgage Portfolios. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 7(1), pp. 1-4. doi:10.32861/ijefr.71.1.4

    [publisher’s website]

  6. Wu, Y. and Lux, N. (2018). U.K. House Prices: Bubbles or Market Efficiency? Evidence from Regional Analysis. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11(3), pp. 54-54. doi:10.3390/jrfm11030054

    [publisher’s website]

  7. Lux, N. and Moss, A. (2016). Liquidity in global real estate securities markets. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 34(4), pp. 321-346. doi:10.1108/jpif-11-2015-0078

    [publisher’s website]

  8. Moss, A. and Lux, N. (2014). The impact of liquidity on the valuation of European real estate securities. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 7(2), pp. 139-157. doi:10.1108/jerer-12-2013-0026

    [publisher’s website]

Reports (6)

  1. Lux, N. and Skouralis, A. (2024). Bayes Business School Commercial Real Estate Lending Report MY 2024. London, UK: Bayes Business School.
  2. Lux, N. (2023). Bayes Business School Commercial Real Estate Lending Report - YE 2023. London, UK: Bayes Business School.
  3. Skouralis, A. and Lux, N. (2023). The impact of flood risk on England’s property market. London: City St Goerge's University.
  4. Lux, N. and Skouralis, A. (2022). Bayes Business School Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Lending report Year-end 2021. Bayes Business School.
  5. Lux, N. (2006). Sterling-Denominated European CNAV Money Market Funds: Key Features & Trends. London: Moody's Investor Service.
  6. Lux, N. MBS: European Red – Yellow – Green®: An Assessment of Office Property Markets, End-2005. Moody's Investor Service.

Working papers (3)

  1. Skouralis, A., Lux, N. and Andrew, M. Does flood risk affect property prices? Evidence from a property-level flood score.
  2. Skouralis, A. and Lux, N. (2024). Measuring the interconnectedness and systemic risk in the European listed real estate sector. Brussels, Belgium: EPRA
  3. Lux, N. and Skouralis, A. (2022). The debt funding gap in the UK commercial real estate sector. Real Estate Research Centre, Bayes Business School, City, University of London

Professional activities

Consultancy (3)

  1. AF Advisory (Private Sector) (October 2017 - January 2018)
    Debt advisory for €100m commercial real estate portfolio for private investor
  2. Al Rayan Bank (Private Sector) (October - December 2015)
    Implementation of rating and RoE model for commercial mortgage loans
  3. Danske Bank (Private Sector) (January - October 2009)
    Workout of $1.3bn US commercial mortgage loan portfolio

Event/conference

  1. Commercial Real Estate Lending Results Year-end 2017. (Conference) London (2018). Invited speaker.
    Paper: Commercial Real Estate Lending Results Year-end 2017
    Author: Niocle Lux